Fantasy Fallout: Seahawks trade Geno Smith to Raiders
The Raiders pulled off a surprise trade on Friday to acquire Geno Smith from the Seahawks in exchange for a third-round pick ahead of free agency. Smith is also expected to get a new contract. The move shakes up the fantasy landscape for both teams, breathing life into the Raiders’ offense while leaving Seattle’s biggest names in a state of limbo. Here’s how things look for both teams after the deal.
Raiders Fantasy Outlook
The Raiders’ offense of 2024 was marred by a rotating cast of quarterbacks, running backs, and even wide receivers. The only constant for the team was Brock Bowers’ dominance. Bowers set the rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,194 and came four catches shy of the receptions record that remains at 116. He finished second among tight ends in target share (26 percent) and targets per route run (.25). Bowers’ efficiency, however, lagged behind his elite volume metrics:
- 2.02 yards per route run (4th-best)
- 10.7 yards per reception (16th)
- 7.8 yards per target (19th)
Even after a historic rookie season, there was almost certainly more juice to squeeze from Bowers via some extra efficiency. To no one’s surprise, the Raiders did not have remotely efficient quarterback play in 2024. Vegas ranked 28th in EPA per passing play. Their two primary quarterbacks—Garnder Minshew and Aidan O’Connell—ranked 25th and 38th in completion percent over expected (min. 200 dropbacks). Pro Football Focus graded both passers outside of their top-32 quarterbacks.
Geno Smith, on the other hand, ranks first in CPOE since taking over as Seattle’s permanent starter in 2022. He is 22nd out of 49 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play.
Smith isn’t elite, but he’s capable. And that’s more than the Raiders got from their stable of passers last year. Geno was also at his best under Pete Carroll. For those who haven’t checked the news lately, that’s Raiders head coach Pete Carroll. Though Carroll is a defensive coach by trade, Seattle’s offenses had his fingerprints all over them during his Seahawks days. Raiders OC Chip Kelly’s offense will spread defenses out with its looks to create openings for his inside zone run scheme. In theory, this should create an efficient—albeit low-volume—passing attack, similar to Smith’s two years under Carroll. Smith’s fantasy output will likely top out at QB2 numbers, though that’s not much of a change for him.
To no one’s surprise, a better passing attack will put more distance between Bowers as the TE1 and Trey McBride as the next-best fantasy option at the position. The move also boosts the stock of Jakobi Meyers as the team’s de facto WR2. Meyers took off after Vegas sent Davante Adams to the Jets, averaging 73 yards per game without the former Packer, Raider and Jet on the roster.
The Raiders are a decent bet to invest in receiver via the draft, but for now, Meyers has PPR WR2 upside. Last among the notable pass-catchers is Tre Tucker. If Tucker escapes the draft without too much competition for reps, he could pop up for the occasional. Smith was
PFF’s No. 3 graded deep passer last year and earned top-10 grades in all three of his seasons as Seattle’s starter. Tucker has seen just over 30 percent of his career targets 20+ yards downfield.
Seahawks Quarterback Options
Seattle currently has Sam Howell and Jarren Hall on the roster at quarterback. They won’t enter Week 1 with that quarterback room. The options are mostly weak in free agency, with Sam Darnold sticking out as the best of the bunch. Darnold finished 2024 ranked 14th in EPA and seventh in CPOE. No other free agent or trade candidate finished top-15 in either metric, let alone both. Darnold also has a connection in Seattle via newly-minted Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak. Darnold’s season as the 49ers’ backup coincided with Kubiak’s stint as the team’s passing game coordinator. True bridge options like Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson are also in play. Both would be disastrous for the team’s passing output.
The draft is likely where Seattle wants to find their next starting quarterback. They currently hold the No. 18 overall pick. That puts them out of the running for Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders if they stay put. Now with a little extra firepower to move up, Seattle could be aggressive if they see either player as a franchise-defining passer.
Seahawks GM John Schneider on the NFL Combine:
“There were a couple of QBs that threw the ball very well… We wanted to make sure we spend more time at the school, revisit, and have our coaches spend a little more time there.”
pic.twitter.com/xGbKfWTT2q— SleeperSeahawks (@SleeperSeahawks) March 7, 2025
First-round hopefuls Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough are almost certainly on their radar as well. Either Howell or a free agent would likely serve as the early-season starter in that scenario.
Seahawks Fantasy Fallout
The next domino to fall is DK Metcalf. Seattle’s star wideout is heading into the final year of his contract and has requested a trade. The Seahawks are allowing him to explore potential partners. With at least one eye on the future, likely two, Seattle’s front office might be more inclined to trade an aging wideout coming off a down year. New England, Green Bay, and Carolina look like potential landing spots for him between their needs at receiver and an ability to extend him. Metcalf would have the potential to dominate targets in all three spots.
Stay or leave, what’s behind door No. 2 is a scary proposition for Metcalf. Despite missing two games last year, Metcalf led the NFL in deep targets (32) and receptions (16). He converted those opportunities into 489 yards and five scores. Both marks ranked top five in the league. For all of his faults, Smith’s deep ball was never in question. Losing that could be a devastating blow to Metcalf’s fantasy outlook.
On the other hand, the Seahawks are making it abundantly clear they plan to build the entire plane out of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They might even have enough for a second vehicle. From Week 9 onward, JSN averaged 6.3 catches for 82 yards and .6 touchdowns. He was targeted on 23 percent of his routes and earned 2.4 yards per route. Smith-Njigba looked the part of an alpha receiver over the final two months and will get the chance to play that role for an entire season next year. Even with a likely downgrade in quarterback play on the way, JSN’s target volume will keep him at the top of the WR2 ranks.
Seattle’s WR4—now potentially their WR2 with Tyler Lockett released—Jake Bobo is a name to watch. Bobo cracked the roster as a UDFA and pinch-hit as a WR3 a few times as a rookie. He had one 60-yard game and two touchdowns. Seattle used him sparingly last year. Noah Fant, entering a contract year, is another player who could benefit from the target vacuum being created in Seattle. Fant never lived up to the first-round hype but has made the occasional splash play in Seattle. More opportunities in 2025 could keep his TE2 raft afloat.
