Can Trump secure a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war? – Daily News

President Donald Trump came into office with bold plans to secure an end to the Russia-Ukraine war “within 24 hours.” While that timeframe may have been hyperbolic, Trump was clearly very intent on getting a peace deal signed quite early in his second term.

Unfortunately, recent weeks have clearly thrown a wrench into that plan. 

As such, it is now reasonable to ask whether the war is any closer to ending than it was prior to inauguration day. 

That being said, there are strategic steps that Trump can take to bring the fighting to an end.

To Trump’s credit, he is attempting out-of-the box strategies that former President Biden refused. Specifically, Trump directly spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin last Tuesday, whereas Biden and Putin had not spoken since the war began in 2022.

Moreover, Trump’s rhetoric has lit a long overdue fire under European countries, who are finally taking steps to boost the bloc’s military spending and end its dependence on American security guarantees. 

In that same vein, even after the chaotic Oval Office meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, American and Ukrainian officials have remained in contact, including attending a bilateral summit in Saudi Arabia.

However, as the Wall Street Journal reported following the Trump-Putin call, “strip away the diplomatic pieties and the main result is that Mr. Putin didn’t agree to Mr. Trump’s 30-day ceasefire.”

The Journal continued, noting that Putin’s demands for a ceasefire – let alone ending the war – are simply “terms Ukraine can’t accept.”

Namely, Putin is demanding a “complete cessation of foreign military aid” and intelligence sharing, and to negotiate only with the United States, not Europe and more importantly, not Ukraine. 

And while Putin did agree to halt strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, prisoner exchanges, and a willingness to a deconfliction mechanism in the Black Sea, those agreements were superficial at best.

Shortly after Putin and Trump spoke, and following Trump’s call with Zelensky – who agreed to pausing energy infrastructure attacks – Russian drones slammed into civilian areas in Ukraine. 

Similarly, pausing attacks on energy infrastructure is clearly more advantageous to Russia, as is demilitarizing the Black Sea, given Russia’s dependence on the waterway and the Russian Navy’s extreme – and one-sided – vulnerability to Ukrainian attacks.

To that end, while President Trump is pursuing a morally and ethically correct outcome in trying to end a war that has taken too many lives and consumed vast resources, its unclear whether Trump is beginning to lose the political cards.

Indeed, whereas earlier this month, I noted a Gallup poll showing that, for the first time, more Americans supported a quick end to the war (50%) rather than wanting U.S. support to continue until Ukraine regains lost ground (48%), that has now shifted.

A majority (53%) of Americans now want to see support continue until Ukraine can reclaim its territory, versus 45% who prefer a quick end to the war in Gallup’s latest poll.

Further, there are signs that Trump’s efforts are increasingly out of step with the American public.

Asked whether they support Ukraine or Russia, roughly 6-in-10 (61%) registered voters said Ukraine, compared to just 2% who say Russia in a new NBC News poll. 

However, when asked where they believe Trump’s sympathies lie, nearly one-half (49%) of registered voters believe Trump’s lie with Russia, while less than 1-in-10 (8%) said Ukraine.

To be clear, this is not to suggest that Trump actually does favor Moscow over Kyiv. The President has been extremely clear that in pursuit of a peace deal, he wants to see America recoup some of its investment from Ukraine, particularly in a mineral deal. 

Nor is it to say that Trump is necessarily wrong to push for a deal that may leave Ukraine short of everything it wants. 

The reality is that for as much as Biden promised to support Ukraine until it reclaimed all of its territory, that was never realistic given Russian nuclear power and significant manpower advantage.