2025 Oscars Best Documentary Feature Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Best Documentary Feature commentary (Updated Feb. 12, 2025): Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev won the Directors Guild of America Award for best documentary for “Porcelain War.”
The past two winners of the Oscar, “20 Days in Mariupol” and “Navalny,” both focused heavily on abuses of power in Russia. This year’s Sundance Jury Prize winner, “Porcelain War” — about Ukrainian artists who join the fight against Russia — seems to align with what voters have been responding to.
Shiori Itō’s harrowing “Black Box Diaries,” winner of the Human Rights Award at CPH:DOX and three awards at the Zurich Film Festival, among many other honors, has gained significant steam. At the IDA Awards, Itō earned the Emerging Filmmaker Award, recognizing the impact of her film.
National Geographic Films has also built a strong track record in recent years, consistently securing Oscar nominations for its top contenders. This bodes well for “Sugarcane,” which has garnered widespread acclaim, including a directing award at Sundance. The film, which explores the horrors of Native American residential schools, appears well-positioned to make the final cut this season.
Meanwhile, the documentary that generated the most momentum was “No Other Land.” Still lacking a distributor, it has emerged as a critics’ favorite.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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Eligible Titles (Documentary Feature)
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More Information (Documentary Feature)
2024 category winner: “20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) — Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
